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CopyThe buyer question this morning is not "did rates finally break?" It is: "With more sellers showing up than buyers, what's the actual leverage right now?" August 31 housing snapshot: • Freddie Mac weekly 30-year fixed: 6.66% as of August 27, up 1 bp from last week • Freddie Mac weekly 15-year fixed: 5.98% • Bankrate buyer read 30-year fixed: 6.73% on August 31 • Bankrate buyer read 15-year fixed: 6.08% • MBA weekly 30-year fixed: 6.78% for the week ending August 21 • Total mortgage applications: -1.0% week over week • 10-year Treasury: 4.73% on August 28 • 30-year Treasury: 5.22% on August 28 • 10s2s Treasury spread: near 0.58 pts • Redfin new listings: 376,235, +0.4% week over week, highest since April • Redfin pending sales: 307,830, -1.1% week over week, lowest since February • Redfin active listings: 1,504,085, +0.5% week over week, highest since May • Redfin median asking price: $394,353, unchanged year over year • Redfin median sale price: $400,649, +1.9% year over year • Initial jobless claims: 203,000 for week ended August 22, down from revised 207,000 • July housing starts: 1.239 million annual pace, -12.4% MoM / -13.5% YoY • July single-family starts: 808,000 annual pace, -9.9% MoM • July building permits: 1.443 million annual pace, +5.0% MoM • July single-family permits: 894,000 annual pace, +2.5% MoM • July new-home sales: 607,000 annual pace, down from 678,000 in June • New homes for sale: 488,000, equal to 9.6 months of supply • July new-home median sales price: $393,800 • Case-Shiller June national home prices: +1.5% year over year • Case-Shiller 20-city index: +2.1% year over year • Conference Board consumer confidence: 89.4 in August, down from 90.2 in July • Conference Board expectations index: 68.2 • August NAHB builder sentiment: 35, up from 34, still below 40 for 16 straight months • Builders cutting prices in August: 35% • Builders using incentives in July: 63% • July CPI: +0.1% MoM / +3.4% YoY • Core CPI: +0.2% MoM / +2.5% YoY • July PCE: +0.2% MoM / +3.7% YoY • Core PCE: +0.2% MoM / +3.3% YoY • July retail sales: -0.6% MoM / +5.0% YoY • University of Michigan preliminary August sentiment: 51.0, down from 55.2 • Realtor.com July list prices: -2.4% YoY, 20% of listings with price cuts, 57 days on market • July existing-home sales: 4.06 million annual pace, -1.7% MoM • July median existing-home price: $431,400, +2.0% YoY • July pending home sales: -2.3% MoM / -2.2% YoY Here is the translation: Sellers are moving faster than buyers right now. New listings just hit their highest level since April. Pending sales fell to a six-month low. Active listings reached their highest level since May. And this week's Case-Shiller release says home prices are still rising, but not running away: national prices were up 1.5% year over year in June, with the 20-city index up 2.1%. Rates are not doing the heavy lifting; Bankrate's Monday read is 6.73%, Freddie's weekly benchmark is 6.66%, and MBA's survey rate is 6.78%. But the bigger story is supply outrunning demand while nominal price gains stay modest. New-home inventory is now 9.6 months of supply, and July sales fell to a 607,000 annual pace. That is not bad news for prepared buyers. It is leverage. Seller credits. Price reductions on listings that have been sitting. Rate buydowns stacked on a rate that's already easing. Builder incentives on the 35% of builders still cutting price. The buyers winning right now are not waiting for a headline rate cut. They know their number before they shop, and they're using the growing inventory gap to negotiate. → Does the payment work at 6.66-6.78% today? → What credit would a seller who's been sitting for 57 days actually take? → Can a buydown beat a small price cut? → Is the stale listing or the builder incentive the better deal this month? → Do the latest comps show modest appreciation in the neighborhood? Start with your number first: hombyt.com/prequalify 5 minutes. No commitment. Just clarity. #FirstTimeHomeBuyer #Housing2026 #MortgageRates #HomByt

CopyKCC MARKET NOTE - August 31, 2026 The Monday tape shows sticky rates meeting widening buyer leverage. Freddie Mac ticked slightly higher on the weekly tape, Bankrate's Monday buyer read is still in the high-6% zone, and the latest Treasury read keeps long yields elevated. The latest Treasury curve has the 10-year at 4.73% and the 30-year at 5.22%, and July PCE inflation is still running well above the Fed's target. At the same time, sellers are outpacing buyers while national home-price gains stay modest. Current tape: • Freddie Mac 30Y fixed: 6.66% as of August 27, up 1 bp from last week • Freddie Mac 15Y fixed: 5.98% • Bankrate buyer read 30Y fixed: 6.73% on August 31 • Bankrate buyer read 15Y fixed: 6.08% • MBA weekly 30Y fixed: 6.78% for the week ending August 21 • Mortgage applications: down 1.0% week over week • 10-year Treasury: 4.73% on August 28 • 30-year Treasury: 5.22% on August 28 • 10s2s Treasury spread: near 0.58 pts • Redfin new listings (4 wks ending Aug 23): 376,235, +0.4% week over week, highest since April • Redfin pending sales: 307,830, -1.1% week over week, lowest since February • Redfin active listings: 1,504,085, +0.5% week over week, highest since May • Redfin median asking price: $394,353, unchanged YoY • Redfin median sale price: $400,649, +1.9% YoY • Initial jobless claims: 203,000 for week ended August 22, down from revised 207,000 • July housing starts: 1.239 million SAAR, down 12.4% MoM / 13.5% YoY • Single-family starts: 808,000 SAAR, down 9.9% MoM • Building permits: 1.443 million SAAR, up 5.0% MoM / 3.1% YoY • Single-family permits: 894,000 SAAR, up 2.5% MoM • July new-home sales: 607,000 SAAR, down from 678,000 in June • New homes for sale: 488,000, equal to 9.6 months of supply • New-home median sales price: $393,800, down 2.3% MoM / 0.9% YoY • Case-Shiller June national home prices: up 1.5% YoY • Case-Shiller 20-city index: up 2.1% YoY • Conference Board consumer confidence: 89.4 in August, down from 90.2 in July • Conference Board expectations index: 68.2 • August NAHB Housing Market Index: 35, up from 34, below 40 for 16 straight months • Builders cutting prices in August: 35%; using incentives in July: 63% • July CPI: +0.1% MoM / +3.4% YoY; core CPI: +0.2% MoM / +2.5% YoY • July PCE: +0.2% MoM / +3.7% YoY; core PCE: +0.2% MoM / +3.3% YoY • July PPI: unchanged MoM / +4.7% YoY • July retail sales: -0.6% MoM / +5.0% YoY • Fed funds target: held at 3.5% to 3.75%, 9-3 vote with three officials favoring a 25 bp hike • University of Michigan preliminary August sentiment: 51.0, down from 55.2 • Realtor.com July list prices: -2.4% YoY, 20.0% of listings with price cuts, 57 days on market • NAR July existing-home sales: 4.06 million annual pace, down 1.7% MoM • NAR July median existing-home price: $431,400, up 2.0% YoY • NAR July pending home sales: down 2.3% MoM and 2.2% YoY The KCC read: 1. Rate relief is unconfirmed. Freddie Mac's benchmark ticked up only 1 bp, but Bankrate's daily read is still 6.73% and MBA's weekly contract rate is 6.78%. Do not underwrite a breakout below 6.5% yet. 2. The long end is still expensive. The 10-year is at 4.73%, while the 30-year is at 5.22%. That is still expensive for term-lending and refinance-timing decisions. 3. Supply is outrunning demand, and the gap is widening. Redfin's new listings reached their highest level since April, active listings hit their highest level since May, and pending sales fell to their lowest level since February. That imbalance is the dominant near-term pricing signal, more than the rate print itself. 4. Prices are still positive, but real appreciation is under pressure. Case-Shiller's June national index rose 1.5% year over year and the 20-city index rose 2.1%. That is not a broad price reset, but inflation is running faster than the national price gain and local comps matter more than national averages. 5. Construction is cautious at the start line, but the permit pipeline holds. Starts fell 12.4% month over month and 13.5% year over year. Permits rose 5.0% month over month and 3.1% year over year. July new-home sales fell to 607,000 SAAR, and inventory rose to 9.6 months of supply. Builder sentiment ticked up to 35 but has stayed below 40 for 16 straight months, and 35% of builders are still cutting price. This is a stronger builder-incentive signal than yesterday's tape. 6. Macro backdrop is mixed, with inflation still sticky. Jobless claims eased to 203,000, CPI cooled to 3.4% year over year, July PCE held at 3.7% year over year, University of Michigan sentiment rolled over to 51.0, and Conference Board confidence slipped to 89.4. Retail sales dipped 0.6% month over month but are still up 5.0% year over year. None of this argues for aggressive easing. 7. Concessions remain the live affordability channel. Realtor.com's 20.0% price-cut share, 63% builder incentive usage, and NAR's soft pending-sales print all point the same direction: credits, buydowns, and repair economics are doing more work than headline rate moves right now. 8. Prepared capital should lean into the imbalance. With new listings at a four-month high against falling pending sales, sellers who need certainty and builders who need absorption are increasingly open to structure. That is where selective capital can find basis advantage. Bottom line: Treat the rate backdrop as range-bound, not relieved. Track the widening gap between rising listings, softer pending sales, and 9.6 months of new-home supply, and use modest Case-Shiller appreciation as one more reason to demand better basis and better structure. KCC economic dashboard: https://landconexa-capital.vercel.app/economic #RealEstateFinance #CapitalMarkets #MortgageRates #KCC