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CopyThe buyer question this weekend is not "did rates finally break?" It is: "With more sellers showing up than buyers, what's the actual leverage right now?" August 23 housing snapshot: • Freddie Mac weekly 30-year fixed: 6.65% as of August 20, a second straight weekly decline • Freddie Mac weekly 15-year fixed: 5.95% • Bankrate real-time 30-year fixed: 6.71% on August 23 • Bankrate real-time 15-year fixed: 6.09% • MBA weekly 30-year fixed: 6.77%, unchanged week over week • 10-year Treasury: closed near 4.69% on August 20, essentially flat for two weeks • 30-year Treasury: around 5.23% • 10s2s Treasury spread: steepened to ~0.52-0.53 pts from ~0.45 in early August • Redfin new listings: +1.2% week over week, 5th straight weekly increase, highest in 3+ months • Redfin pending sales: -1.3% week over week, lowest level since March • Redfin median asking price: -0.1% week over week, first decline since January • Redfin median sale price: still +1.8% year over year • Initial jobless claims: 206,000 for week ended August 15, down from 212,000 • July housing starts: 1.239 million annual pace, -12.4% MoM / -13.5% YoY • July single-family starts: 808,000 annual pace, -9.9% MoM • July building permits: 1.443 million annual pace, +5.0% MoM • July single-family permits: 894,000 annual pace, +2.5% MoM • August NAHB builder sentiment: 35, up from 34, still below 40 for 16 straight months • Builders cutting prices in August: 35% • Builders using incentives in July: 63% • July CPI: +0.1% MoM / +3.4% YoY • Core CPI: +0.2% MoM / +2.5% YoY • July retail sales: -0.6% MoM / +5.0% YoY • University of Michigan preliminary August sentiment: 51.0, down from 55.2 • Realtor.com July list prices: -2.4% YoY, 20% of listings with price cuts, 57 days on market • July existing-home sales: 4.06 million annual pace, -1.7% MoM • July median existing-home price: $431,400, +2.0% YoY • July pending home sales: -2.3% MoM / -2.2% YoY Here is the translation: Sellers are moving faster than buyers right now. New listings just posted a fifth straight weekly gain. Pending sales fell to a five-month low. Redfin estimates roughly half a million more sellers than buyers nationally. Rates helped a little; two straight weeks of Freddie Mac declines is real, even if Bankrate's live quote is still north of 6.7%. But the bigger story is supply outrunning demand. That is not bad news for prepared buyers. It is leverage. Seller credits. Price reductions on listings that have been sitting. Rate buydowns stacked on a rate that's already easing. Builder incentives on the 35% of builders still cutting price. The buyers winning right now are not waiting for a headline rate cut. They know their number before they shop, and they're using the growing inventory gap to negotiate. → Does the payment work at 6.65-6.71% today? → What credit would a seller who's been sitting for 57 days actually take? → Can a buydown beat a small price cut? → Is the stale listing or the builder incentive the better deal this month? Start with your number first: hombyt.com/prequalify 5 minutes. No commitment. Just clarity. #FirstTimeHomeBuyer #Housing2026 #MortgageRates #HomByt

CopyKCC MARKET NOTE - August 23, 2026 The weekend tape shows genuine, if modest, rate relief colliding with a widening supply-demand gap. Freddie Mac eased for a second straight week. The 10-year Treasury is going nowhere, but the curve is steepening. And sellers are outpacing buyers by a widening margin. Current tape: • Freddie Mac 30Y fixed: 6.65% as of August 20, second consecutive weekly decline • Freddie Mac 15Y fixed: 5.95% • Bankrate real-time 30Y fixed: 6.71% on August 23 • MBA weekly 30Y fixed: 6.77%, unchanged week over week • MBA 30Y jumbo: 6.71%, +3 bp; 7/6 SOFR ARM: 5.94%, -5 bp • 10-year Treasury: closed near 4.69% on August 20, flat over the trailing two weeks • 30-year Treasury: around 5.23% • 10s2s Treasury spread: steepened to ~0.52-0.53 pts, up from ~0.45 in early August • Redfin new listings (4 wks ending Aug 16): +1.2% week over week, 5th straight increase, highest in 3+ months • Redfin pending sales: -1.3% week over week, lowest level since March • Redfin median asking price: -0.1% week over week, first decline since January • Redfin median sale price: still +1.8% YoY; estimated ~500,000 more sellers than buyers nationally • Initial jobless claims: 206,000 for week ended August 15, down from 212,000 • July housing starts: 1.239 million SAAR, down 12.4% MoM / 13.5% YoY • Single-family starts: 808,000 SAAR, down 9.9% MoM • Building permits: 1.443 million SAAR, up 5.0% MoM / 3.1% YoY • Single-family permits: 894,000 SAAR, up 2.5% MoM • August NAHB Housing Market Index: 35, up from 34, below 40 for 16 straight months • Builders cutting prices in August: 35%; using incentives in July: 63% • July CPI: +0.1% MoM / +3.4% YoY; core CPI: +0.2% MoM / +2.5% YoY • July PPI: unchanged MoM / +4.7% YoY • July retail sales: -0.6% MoM / +5.0% YoY • Fed funds target: held at 3.5% to 3.75%, 9-3 vote with three officials favoring a 25 bp hike • University of Michigan preliminary August sentiment: 51.0, down from 55.2 • Realtor.com July list prices: -2.4% YoY, 20.0% of listings with price cuts, 57 days on market • NAR July existing-home sales: 4.06 million annual pace, down 1.7% MoM • NAR July median existing-home price: $431,400, up 2.0% YoY • NAR July pending home sales: down 2.3% MoM and 2.2% YoY The KCC read: 1. Rate relief is real, but incremental. Two straight weekly declines in Freddie Mac's benchmark, credited partly to an expanded Treasury buyback of long-term debt offsetting a multi-week bond selloff. Bankrate's live quote is still 6.71%, and MBA's weekly measure hasn't moved. Do not underwrite a breakout below 6.5% yet. 2. The curve is steepening, not just easing. The 10-year is flat near 4.69%, but the 10s2s spread has widened from ~0.45 to ~0.52-0.53 in three weeks. That's a classic normalization signal worth watching for term-lending and refinance-timing decisions. 3. Supply is outrunning demand, and the gap is widening. Redfin's new listings just logged a fifth straight weekly increase to a 3+ month high, while pending sales fell to their lowest level since March. Redfin now estimates roughly half a million more sellers than buyers nationally. That imbalance is the dominant near-term pricing signal, more than the rate print itself. 4. Construction is cautious at the start line, but the permit pipeline holds. Starts fell 12.4% month over month and 13.5% year over year. Permits rose 5.0% month over month and 3.1% year over year. Builder sentiment ticked up to 35 but has stayed below 40 for 16 straight months, and 35% of builders are still cutting price. This is a caution signal, not a demand collapse; the forward pipeline is intact. 5. Macro backdrop is soft, not broken. Jobless claims eased to 206,000, CPI cooled to 3.4% year over year, and consumer sentiment rolled over to 51.0. Retail sales dipped 0.6% month over month but are still up 5.0% year over year. The Fed held its target range at 3.5-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a hike. None of this argues for aggressive easing, but none of it argues for a hard landing either. 6. Concessions remain the live affordability channel. Realtor.com's 20.0% price-cut share, 63% builder incentive usage, and NAR's soft pending-sales print all point the same direction: credits, buydowns, and repair economics are doing more work than headline rate moves right now. 7. Prepared capital should lean into the imbalance. With new listings rising for a fifth straight week against falling pending sales, sellers who need certainty and builders who need absorption are increasingly open to structure. That is where selective capital can find basis advantage. Bottom line: Treat the two-week Freddie Mac decline as encouraging but unconfirmed. Watch the 10s2s spread as a normalization signal. Track the widening gap between rising listings and falling pending sales as the dominant near-term pricing driver, and keep dry powder ready for sellers and builders who need to move. KCC economic dashboard: https://landconexa-capital.vercel.app/economic #RealEstateFinance #CapitalMarkets #MortgageRates #KCC